Good day, Dr. Denison.
I hope this finds you well.
Yesterday, I had the pleasure of reading the Global Outlook for Q2 2009 and was left very satisfied by the level of Geographic analysis put forth by the team. I must say, there is not much with which to disagree. The forecast was constructed very well.
However, I do have questions/comments, however about the Topics section.
1. How does the team factor technological unemployment into the equation/question of demographic threats?
It would seem that the increasing rapid deployment of automated supply chains, IT infrastructure, and security would help tame the beast of demographic threats, at least from the perspective of talent/shrinking workforce. Partnering with increasing returns from the “digital infrastructure”, we are beginning to see the start of knowledge and decision automation which by all accounts should steepen the curve of technological unemployment and allow for productivity gains to become coupled to scalable IT instead of measures like birthrate, population, and education. Granted, these former measures will still be very important when analyzing demographic threats, but the introduction of these new measures should not be ignored.
2. How will new economical computations play a role in this analysis?
In the very near term, I feel that new models of prediction may lean more towards evolutionary computation to supplement reductionist risk and projection methods. They are currently being proven to handle complexity much better. If we can harness short-term complex prediction and use the results as the basis for long-term economic projection, would our results be different? I think yes and I think they may show us something much more accurate and precise! It is not a mystery that we have more computing power now that we could ever need. Our problem is not of scarcity to run these new models, but of embracing a new and innovative tool for our arsenal of prediction. Using these techniques, we may be able to guide economical emergence.
3. Talent Flash Mobs – Allowing for team self-assembly across the human network enabled by Social Technology?
There is a new concept of the “Flash Mob” or “Tribes”. They are usually used for pranks, but I am of the mind that they could be harnessed for the workplace. New tools like Google Wave can enable Workplace Flash Mobs, changing productivity metrics at their core.
Once again, thank you for a great Outlook document. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on the above.
Michael P. Gusek